Russia's summer offensive stalls, no large-scale assault anticipated: Ukrainian Intel reports
Both Western and Ukrainian experts assert that Russia will not launch a new coordinated offensive along hundreds of kilometers of the front lines this summer. Despite these claims, Russian forces have announced the capture of Novoselivka Persha and are slowly advancing towards the strategically important city of Pokrovsk.
"While a large-scale offensive along the whole front line, similar to what we witnessed in February 2022, is currently ruled out," Ukrainian military intelligence representative Andriy Yusov told journalists.
The situation on the ground remains nuanced. According to experts at the Institute for the Study of War, the ability of Russian forces to initiate a new summer offensive is hampered by material and manpower constraints. As of late July, Russian troops in western Donetsk region have been making localized advances, but they lack the broader operational capacity required for a renewed offensive in Donetsk or other front areas, ISW highlighted.
Nick Reynolds, a research fellow on land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, concurred with this assessment. However, he emphasized that the situation "remains fragile for both sides" and is "highly unpredictable."
Analysts and officials are in agreement that the Kremlin continues its war of attrition, aiming to deplete Ukraine's personnel and equipment before its own resources are exhausted. As speculative assessments indicate, a major battle is expected to unfold in 2024 along the Pokrovsk axis, with the introduction of F-16 fighters anticipated to make a significant impact.
Additionally, reports detail that Ukrainian special operations forces have carried out a "cleansing" operation near Toretsk and continue to hold the line against Russian army assaults in the Toretsk direction.