Poland: Russia can attack Ukraine in the coming days
Russia continues to amass its troops on the border with Ukraine, which may indicate a possible invasion in the coming days, said the head of the National Security Bureau of Poland Paweł Soloch.
"Of course, the situation is a stalemate, but we must be prepared for what the British Defense Minister said, that Russia may attack Ukraine in the coming days," PAP new agency quotes Soloch as saying.
Speaking about a possible scenario that Russia can use to attack Ukraine, Solokh noted that "any option is possible." The least likely, according to him, is a large-scale attack to capture the entire territory of Ukraine.
"Although, of course, it cannot be ruled out, and the Russians, as always in such situations, are exploring their capabilities, from the point of view of destabilizing the country without a shot, without moving the army," he added.
On January 14, Russia began a snap combat readiness check of the troops of the Eastern Military District.
By mid-December, about 100,000 Russian troops were deployed near the Ukrainian border, including about 50 highly mobile battalion tactical groups, the Financial Times writes, citing sources familiar with Western intelligence data.
According to the estimates, that the number of troops could rise to 175,000 by the end of January, when the ground will freeze and be more suitable for tank movement in the event of a ground invasion.
Two long-time Putin's confidants told the FT that the most likely casus belli would resemble the one that led to the start of the war with Georgia in August 2008. Russia then responded to Tbilisi's attempt to gain control over South Ossetia by sending troops into Georgian territory with air and artillery support, using a blockade from the sea and cyberattacks.
Moscow will present the conflict with Ukraine as an attempt to protect the Russian-speaking population in the Donbas from what it will call "Ukrainian aggression", FT sources said.
The news background for such a development of events is already being prepared. On January 3, the People's Militia of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic announced that on December 27, Ukrainian "nationalist militants" seized a school in the village of Valuske in the Donbas, and are now setting up headquarters there: cars with armed men and artillery reconnaissance equipment are arriving.
The LPR People's Militia said that the forces of the Ukrainian army are moving to the captured school.