Ukraine may be preparing a counteroffensive for next year, which was planned for this summer by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, reports Welt, citing German expert and Senior Research Fellow at the Munich Security Conference, Nico Lange.

Although the Ukrainian counteroffensive this year clearly reached a deadlock and Western support is somewhat wavering, there are signs that Kyiv is preparing a plan for 2024.
Lange notes that most of the tanks and armored personnel vehicles promised to Ukraine by Western countries have not even arrived yet. For example, Germany and its allies promised to provide 200 Leopard 1 tanks, but Ukraine has received only 30 units.
However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces still have access to over 95% of all weapons systems provided by the West, as they have not yet been used in the counteroffensive, according to the assessment by the Dutch project Oryx, which analyzes data on supplies and destruction of military equipment.

The German expert believes that Ukraine is focusing on attrition. The military is no longer trying to hold positions, like in Bakhmut. Although they do want to slow down the occupying forces and make them "bleed out."
In the south, Ukrainian airborne units are holding and expanding a foothold on the occupied left bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region. From there, it is only 60 km to the Crimean Peninsula.

This has been a weak spot for the Russians ever since Ukraine forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to leave the waters of the Black Sea and struck at air defense systems and other military targets in Crimea.
"Ukraine still has big plans. This is evidenced by the list of desired armaments that Ukraine has sent to the United States. This includes Black Hawk and Apache helicopters, F-16 and F-18 fighters, long-range missile systems, Abrams tanks, a range of drones, and ammunition," says Lange.

The Welt article notes that the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, was not in favor of a counter-offensive without air support, but agreed to it only for political reasons. Therefore, Zaluzhnyi, who decided to attack with small infantry units, saved soldiers' lives and won important time.

According to Lange, Ukraine is gathering resources for a new counter-offensive in 2024. One potential starting point could be a foothold in Kherson.
If the Ukrainian Armed Forces  have modern fighter jets, combat helicopters, and strike drones, they will be able to support the offensive from the air, especially since there are hardly any Russian fortifications in this region.
This is likely to be the counter-offensive that Zaluzhnyi had planned from the very beginning.

  War in Ukraine, Germany, Russia

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