French intelligence believes that Moscow is developing several scenarios for military aggression against Ukraine: from the seizure of the entire Donbas to the occupation of cities in the South of Ukraine.
The French news agency Europe1, referring to the French intelligence, said that Putin is still planning to invade Ukraine. At the same time, the Russian president understands the balance of power is "very tense."
According to Europe1, Putin will decide the future fate of Ukraine based on the results of negotiations with the United States and NATO.
The first scenario is a direct invasion of Ukraine. Russia has already amassed 100,000 to 150,000 soldiers and a lot of military equipment on the Ukrainian border. In this scenario, there will be many casualties on both sides.
The Europe1’s source reports that the British government has already developed an emergency plan for the evacuation of its citizens in case of the Russian invasion.
Scenario 2 is to annex only the Donbas to Russia. French generals initially thought that this course of events was most likely. It is suitable for Russia, because it can provoke an incident in the region, in order to then deploy troops "to protect" the Russians living in the Donbas.
The last scenario is the seizure of strategically important regions in the South of Ukraine. This will give Russia an opportunity to "connect" the annexed Crimea not only by water, but also by land.
At the same time, the French do not rule out that Russia is ready to use the strategy proposed by General Valery Gerasimov in the war against Ukraine. He suggested to unleash an all-out war on the economic, information and military fronts.