Former Ukrainian commander: Russian mobilization reserves may last a year, Ukraine's military at risk of exhaustion
Former "Aidar" Battalion company commander and military analyst Yevhen Dykyi has commented on the mobilization capabilities available to Russia for its ongoing full-scale military operations, suggesting that they may have only up to a year left.
According to Dykyi, Russia is likely to deploy as many soldiers as possible this winter, in an attempt to deplete the Ukrainian Armed Forces and tilt the battlefield dynamics in its favor.
"They have concluded that saving these resources makes no sense. Better to use them up now, with the belief that we will exhaust before they do," Dykyi mentioned. He elaborated that while Russia's mobilization resources might last a year, Ukraine’s could potentially run out within six months.
"The critical difference between us and the Russians is our massive untapped mobilization reserve, unlike theirs. They've all but exhausted theirs over the past two years. But unless we effectively turn that reserve into actual reinforcements, their risky strategy may pay off," Dykyi warned.
He further emphasized that Russia's strategy seeks to "break" Ukraine over this winter, a gamble he admitted could succeed. "We might falter before spring, especially as we are recruiting at half the rate necessary to cover even non-combat losses. This places us in the most challenging situation since the start of 2022," Dykyi noted soberly.
Yet, he also maintained that if Ukraine withstands this winter offensive, Russians themselves could face a significant strategic decline.