Belarus-Germany prisoner swap: Putin plans to retrieve Russian assassin via Lukashenko
In late June, Belarus sentenced German citizen Rico Krieger to death. Prosecutors charged him with six counts, including terrorism and extremist activities.
On July 22, the death sentence took effect, yet there is no official confirmation of its execution.
Deutschen Welle reports, citing its contacts, that Krieger, sentenced by the Minsk Regional Court, is being prepped for a swap involving Russian assassin Vadim Krasikov, who is serving a life sentence in Germany for killing a former Chechen field commander and Georgian citizen Zelimkhan Khangoshvili.
According to human rights organizations, Krieger has been in Belarusian pre-trial detention since October 6, 2023. His exact location of detention—whether it was in Belarus, Russia, or Ukraine—remains unknown.
"Some Russian Z-bloggers suggest he was captured in Russia and then sent to Belarus," analyst and historian Alexander Friedman told reporters.
Friedman believes that the Belarusian authorities orchestrated Krieger’s entire trial to leverage an exchange, rather than actually execute the death sentence. This theory appears most plausible, he added.
"Putin himself stated that he wants to retrieve Krasikov. It's a matter of honor. Then we get Krieger's case, sentencing him to death. The stakes are raised to the maximum—exchange or Kaos him," Friedman said. "Germany will have to comply if that’s the ultimatum."
Sharing Friedman's perspectives, BYSOL co-founder Andrei Strizhak pointed to a recent swap where Ukrainians detained in Belarusian prisons were handed over to Ukraine, basically brokered by Russia.
"This was the first signal that Russians started using Belarus to deal with their adversaries. I hypothesize that this current situation is another Russian operation through Belarus to escalate stakes since Russia has a death penalty moratorium, while Belarus does not," Strizhak opined.
Deutsche Welle notes that Belarus’s Foreign Ministry has already communicated "concrete solutions regarding potential scenarios" to Germany.
Remember, the exchange of Vadim Krasikov, serving time in Germany, and Vladislav Klyushin, convicted in the U.S., with detained foreign nationals in Russia has been a recurrent topic. The latest discussions occurred just before the sudden and suspicious death of opposition politician Alexei Navalny in Russia’s high-security Penal Colony of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, who was included in the exchange list along with Americans Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan.