Analysts predict early end to Russian offensive in Ukraine as operational pressures mount
According to U.S. OSINT analysts , Russian forces are unlikely to maintain their initiative indefinitely. Operational pressure stemming from Ukraine's incursion into the Kursk region could likely result in an earlier than planned conclusion to Russia’s offensive operations in eastern Ukraine.
The Pokrovsk direction remains a priority for the Russian military command. Reinforced assaults in the western part of Donetsk region are likely seen as secondary efforts, according to the Institute for the Study of War in its September 5th briefing.
It appears that the aim of the Russian command is for these secondary operations to tie down Ukrainian forces in western Donetsk Oblast, preventing their redeployment to strengthen defenses in Pokrovsk, regardless of the successes achieved.
The Russian military leadership has shown a clear intent to shield their advances in the Pokrovsk direction from the operational pressure induced by Ukraine's push into the Kursk region. It’s likely that any remaining operational reserves will be saved for efforts aimed directly at capturing Pokrovsk. This level of priority is expected to persist regardless of the success of reinforced Russian attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces are reportedly attempting to expand the Pokrovsk salient along the Selidove – Ukrainsk – Horyanyk line as a preparatory step towards capturing Pokrovsk. Any involvement of central military units in the western Donetsk offensive will likely serve as an additional measure for the capture of Pokrovsk.
The Russian military command is attempting to stretch Ukrainian forces through continuous offensive pressure, with their large-scale efforts apparently increasing along the Donetsk Oblast line.
However, Russian troops are not expected to maintain their hold on the initiative across the entire eastern front in Ukraine indefinitely, analysts suggest.
“Multiple offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, combined with the ongoing operational pressure from Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast, will likely lead to these offensives concluding earlier than the Russian military command anticipates,” analysts speculate.
It's worth noting that Ukrainian forces recently regained positions in New York, Ukraine, successfully unlocking the Ukrainian units that had been surrounded by Russian troops.