The Syrian government army is amassing forces in the Eastern Ghouta region. Yesterday a convoy arrived containing Two T-55 tanks, a T-72, five BMP-1s, as well as a ZPU-4, a ZU-23-2s and a “Tochka-U” tactical operational missile complex. All of this equipment will be involved in a massive offensive both on Eastern Ghouta and on the region south of Damascus – the Yarmouk refugee camp, which is partially controlled by ISIS militants. The Syrian Arab Army’s (SAA) operation has been dubbed “Damascus steel” by activists, who use it as a hashtag.

Eastern Ghouta is a fertile valley north-east of Damascus. Before the start of the fighting, it was home to roughly 2 million people. At the end of 2012, anti-government militants began to assert control over the Ghouta regions, which led to bloody encounters and the destruction of local infrastructure. According to UN representatives, by the end of 2017 only several hundred thousand inhabitants remained in Eastern Ghouta.

In August 2013, the chemical weapons were used in the region, killing civilians alongside militants. Estimates regarding the total death toll range from 280 to more than 1,700. The Syrian government claimed that this was planned provocation by militants, and denied using toxic substances. Ultimately, in a program suggested by Russia, Syria agreed to destroy its chemical weapons reserves under the supervision of international observers.

In May 2017, Eastern Ghouta was added to the list of territories to become de-escalation zones. It was assumed that in these zones the fighting would cease, and medical and humanitarian aid points could be deployed. However, the bombardment there has subsided only during short ceasefires, when the government forces and militants have exchanged prisoners or gathered the bodies of the dead from the battlefield. The conflict peaked at the end of last year in the fight for a military equipment base controlled by the SAA. Ahrar al-Sham militants initially tried to capture the base. When they realized that they had insufficient forces to do so, they tried to cut off the base’s supply route. The clashes resulted in hundreds of deaths for both sides, and the SAA lost nearly a dozen senior officers (colonels and generals).

The huge numbers of forces and equipment which will be used in the upcoming operation indicate that the Syrian command is preparing seriously for an offensive. The combat could result in severe losses for both sides. The civilians who remain in Eastern Ghouta will be particularly affected. The only way for a bloodbath to be avoided would be an agreement between the government and the militants to evacuate the militant forces from this region (into, e.g. the Idlib province). At present, however, the militants’ statements remain resolute – not only do they promise to fight back, they expect reinforcements from other captured regions.

  Syria, Ghouta

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