Zelensky discusses Ukraine's security path: NATO membership or nuclear rearmament
During a candid conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the urgency of Ukraine joining NATO, highlighting Kyiv's renouncement of nuclear arms. This pivotal dialogue was unveiled by Zelensky at a press conference on Thursday, October 17, following his participation in the European Council meeting where he outlined Ukraine's Victory Plan.
Zelensky referenced the Budapest Memorandum, criticizing it as ineffective in securing Ukraine following Kyiv’s decision to forgo nuclear weapons.
"Which of these great powers, all nuclear states, truly suffered? All? No, it was one – Ukraine. Who gave up nuclear weapons? All? One did – Ukraine. Who is fighting today? Ukraine. In my conversation with Donald Trump, I stated: 'This is our reality – so what's our exit strategy? Either Ukraine regains nuclear weapons as a form of defense or embraces an alliance. Right now, NATO represents the only effective alliance we recognize,'" the head of state asserted.
According to Zelensky, NATO member countries are currently not at war, and this is why Ukraine seeks NATO over nuclear armament.
"I believe Donald Trump listened to me. He said, 'You have valid arguments,'" Zelensky concluded.
Against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict with Russia and unfulfilled security assurances tied to the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine increasingly hints at possibly pursuing nuclear arms as a security measure. However, developing a nuclear arsenal is a complex undertaking, demanding substantial resources, technology, and time.
Should Ukraine decide to pursue a nuclear arsenal, it will need to navigate several key stages:
1. Infrastructure Development. Building or refurbishing facilities for uranium enrichment, plutonium processing, as well as laboratories and test sites.
2. Scientific Base Creation. Assembling teams of nuclear physicists capable of developing a functional nuclear charge and delivery systems.
3. Nuclear Material Production. Uranium enrichment or plutonium production is one of the most extensive and costly phases. Depending on the technologies, this process can take several years.
4. Warhead Assembly and Testing. Once enough materials are secured, Ukraine would need to assemble a prototype and conduct tests, which would come with international risks and potential sanctions.
Opting to develop nuclear weapons could significantly shift the international dynamic surrounding Ukraine. On one hand, possessing a nuclear capability would bolster the country's defense and provide substantial negotiating leverage. However, it could also heighten tensions with the West and Russia, impacting global nuclear non-proliferation agreements.
Currently, Ukraine publicly leans toward NATO membership, but potential nuclear ambitions indicate Kiev is exploring various scenarios to secure its safety amid uncertainty and breaches of international agreements.