War in Ukraine may continue for a long time. Russians will not sign any agreements with Kyiv and its allies and will continue to carry out sporadic shelling of Ukraine without major military operations, according to the Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Kyrylo Budanov, in an interview with NV (New Voice).
"There are cases in history when long-standing wars between countries remain legally unresolved. A simple example is Russia and Japan, who have not signed a peace treaty since 1945 due to the Northern Islands. This territorial problem has lasted for over 70 years. Therefore, this scenario is highly probable here, because Russia has significant territorial appetites towards Ukraine, not only concerning Crimea. Of course, these appetites will not be satisfied," said Budanov.
Speaking about how long Russia can sustain high-intensity combat operations, the Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate listed several factors that will determine its future: systematic changes in the Russian economy, external supply of military goods, and the increasing war weariness in society.
Budanov noted that currently, economic stability is still maintained in Russia, despite the fuel crisis, sharp rise in food prices, and other goods and services.
"This is shaking their economy and social sphere, and they will feel the real problems in 2025," predicts the Ukrainian intelligence chief.
Budanov also believes that the fatigue from the war is rapidly growing among Russians, while the population of Russia, including the male population, is swiftly declining, although this will not provoke any issues with the "military personnel".
"There is hope that 2025 will be a turning point regarding internal systemic destructive changes and processes in the Russian state, society, and economy. But this is not a forecast, but an expectation. Based on the existing factors, there is a probability of this. But do not forget that this war is becoming global and generating new processes every month. They will also overlap with the situation and greatly alter any preliminary estimates. This is a challenge that leading analysts in the world have already encountered," said Budanov.