Ukrainian Forces withdraw from Sudzha after 218-day standoff in Kursk region
Ukrainian troops are reportedly withdrawing from the district center of Sudzha, ending their 218-day hold, as reported by OSINT observers. The advancing Russian forces wield an advantage in manpower, drones, aviation, and artillery, offering them tactical and operational superiority.
The intensified Russian military action in the Kursk direction has exacerbated the situation for the Ukrainian Defense Forces operating on Russian territory. The large-scale advancement resulted in the loss of control over multiple settlements in the Kursk region, including Sudzha.
On March 10, the Institute for the Study of War noted the preparations by the Russian army for an imminent assault on Sudzha according to their report. Analysts observed the Russian unit's advancement northeast of Martynovka towards the district center. These movements were corroborated by monitoring resource DeepState, highlighting the loss of Ukrainian positions east of Sudzha to Russian forces, who almost reached the locality.
However, maps from the Ukrainian General Staff did not show the Russian advance directly to Sudzha, restricting their operational details to Russian aerial strike counts and Ukrainian resistance efforts.
During a visit to the operations zone in Kursk, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi remarked on March 10 that there was no imminent threat of Ukrainian units being encircled in the Kursk Region; the overall scenario remains under control. Ukrainian forces have been bolstered with EW systems and drone capabilities.
Military analyst Serhiy Grabski commented on the situation, indicating that Russian forces were attempting to encircle Ukrainian formations in the Kursk operational zone; however, these attempts have been unsuccessful. The Russian troops have been pushing towards the road connecting Sudzha and Yunakovka in the Sumy region, hinting at an effort to threaten encirclement. Nonetheless, Ukrainian forces have been withdrawing methodically from select areas to avoid losses and maintain combat efficacy.
The role of Russian aviation has been pivotal, with Russian airstrikes intensity being substantial—deploying between 600 to 800 missiles over the week—half of which targeted the Kursk region. Resultant conditions have rendered defense impractical in some districts. According to Grabski, "some areas resemble a lunar landscape," prompting Ukrainian withdrawals when further resistance became untenable. He added that despite the challenges, key operational goals were accomplished, notably the annihilation of three adversary divisions, as noted by the Armed Forces Commander, General Syrskyi.
Military journalist Yuriy Butusov reported Ukrainian fighters conducting combat withdrawals in the Kursk region, repelling Russian assaults.
Russian forces aimed to sever Ukrainian access to the border, but these attempts were thwarted. However, the superior manpower, drones, aviation, and artillery provide the Russian forces a strategic edge.
During March 10 and 11, Russian sources showed the progression of Russian military operations across the engagement line in the Kursk direction. The Russian Defense Ministry reported the capture of 12 settlements: Agronom, Bogdanovka, Bondarevka, Dmitryukov, Zazulevka, Ivashkovsky, Kolmakov, Kubatkin, Martynovka, Mikhailovka, Pravda, and Yuzhny.
March 11 marked initial reports from Russian channels of their troops entering Sudzha. Ukrainian garrison forces held fortified lines along the Psel river, countering easterly and northeastern onslaughts. Fierce skirmishes broke out near Dmitryukov, southeast of Sudzha, with Russian forces exerting pressure from dual fronts, threatening strategic encirclement. Russian media outlets shared footage of their flag being raised in southern Sudzha suburbs, followed by locations near the district administrative center.
On March 12, Forbes cited Ukrainian military sources reporting that primary Ukrainian defense units exited Kursk for Sumy, leaving isolated units to cover their retreat. All heavily armored and mechanized Ukrainian brigades suffered extensive losses; they are undergoing rapid replenishment for a new defensive line setup in the Sumy region.
Analysts from the Dnipro OSINT group provided a breakdown of the current situation, noting the withdrawal of Ukrainian Defense Forces from the Kursk region after a prolonged 218-day control stint over Sudzha.
They assessed that during combat, Russia repositioned roughly 50,000 troops, including elite marine and airborne contingents, along with top drone units. Geospatial analysis records over 500 Russian military equipment losses within Kursk, excluding civilian vehicular requisitions.
Ultimately, Ukrainian withdrawals were compelled by military logistics sundered by Russia interrupting vital supply routes, necessitating a shift to Sumy. Recent Russian maneuvers exploited mostly vacated settlements, presenting scenarios for recovery provided logistical backbone availability.