Ukraine’s strikes on Druzhba pipeline could cost Russia billions, economist says
Ukrainian attacks on the Druzhba oil pipeline are depriving Russia of billions in export revenue and threatening the stability of the country’s budget.
The fallout from Ukraine’s strikes on Druzhba could be catastrophic for Moscow, with Russia’s budget set to lose about 100 billion rubles each month - roughly 20% of the country’s oil and gas revenues, according to Russian economist Vyacheslav Shiryaev.
Damage to the pipeline is so extensive that a full restoration could take several months.
“100 billion rubles ($1.24 billion) every month, or 20% of oil and gas revenues, will be lost by Russia’s budget due to the inability to pump oil through the Druzhba pipeline,” says Shiryaev.
Druzhba had carried massive volumes: 54 million tons of oil per year, or about 1 million barrels per day, supplying Slovakia, Hungary and Belarus, as well as Russia’s port of Ust-Luga for seaborne exports.
Shiryaev estimates Moscow could ultimately forgo roughly $21.6 billion in revenue.
“Every day of downtime is a $59 million loss,” he said.
The situation escalated after a series of strikes on Druzhba’s key nodes. On August 13, the Unecha station in Russia’s Bryansk region - a critical hub - was hit, triggering explosions and a large fire that damaged pumps and storage tanks.
In the early hours of August 18, the Nikolskoye station in the Tambov region was struck, and the ensuing fire forced a complete shutdown of pumping. Russian operators managed only a partial restart by August 20.
But on August 21, Unecha was hit again, sparking another major blaze. The next day, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said oil deliveries to his country had been fully halted due to the renewed attack.
The strikes have not only dented Kremlin budget inflows but also jeopardized Russia’s export links in Europe. The loss of millions of barrels of oil and tens of millions of dollars daily is turning the energy sector - a pillar of Russia’s economy - into a vulnerable target under continued Ukrainian pressure.