Ukraine’s strategic advance: aiming for Kursk's Nuclear Power Plant amid rapid territorial gains
The operation, which began on August 6, continues to unfold into its third day. Reports, primarily from the Russian side, suggest that Ukrainian forces are meeting little resistance from regular Russian troops. Given the lack of official commentary from Kyiv, the rapid developments are interpreted solely through the accounts of Russian military correspondents and officials.
By the afternoon of the third day, the conflict zone in Kursk had expanded to 50 kilometers. Reports of skirmishes near the villages of Anastaseevka and Ivnytsia indicate an 8 km further advance, thrusting 27 kilometers into the Kursk region. Initially, the main thrusts of the offensive were along the R-200 highway towards Sudzha and under the cover of the Olshana River from the left flank, as well as the Nikolaevo — Daryino — Nizhniy Klyn direction, shielded by the Snagost River. Now, the advance appears to be along the Lgov-Sudzha road.
In the first 48 hours, the controlled zone extended beyond Sudzha district along the Rylsk-Sudzha road into Korenovsky district, nearing the outskirts of Korenevo city. Should the reports of clashes near Anastaseevka and Ivnytsia be verified, it could indicate the loss of Russian control over most of the district's left side along the Lgov-Sudzha road, covering at least 15 villages. Crucially, the direction of movement strikes a prudent balance between road and railway access, firm terrain, and minimal settlements intersected by the Ivnytsia River.
Rivers serve as natural barriers against unexpected flanking attacks and can be used to position forces and assets, as well as to fortify locations covering the main line of advance. Validating the reports about Anastaseevka and Ivnytsia strengthens the notion that the primary direction is towards Lgov, merely 18 km from Anastaseevka. This brings the theory of targeting the Kursk NPP into clearer focus.
New videos and photos from the conflict zone depict scores of Russian soldiers surrendering. Preliminary reports suggest that by the evening of August 7, over 300 Russian troops had surrendered. Russian public critique targets Kadyrov's forces, involved in border defense. As soon as artillery preparation began at the "Sudzha" checkpoint, Sverdlikovo, Oleshni, and Nikolaevo-Daryino, Akhmat units headed towards Kursk.
On May 10, as Russian forces commenced their advance in the Kharkiv region, their main resources focused on the Belogrod border, deploying up to 50,000 personnel. In their quest to seize Ukrainian territories, Russian command weakened the "Bryansk" and "Kursk" formations, bolstering them with Akhmat units. The 50,000-strong Russian contingent in Kharkov pushed 35 km deep and expanded the front by only 6-8 km. Meanwhile, the Kursk front now stretches 50 km wide and 27 km deep. As of midday on August 8, Russian forces have lost control of over 400 km².
Russia secured slightly over 1,000 km² in half a year, while in just three days, Ukraine captured 400 km² in the Kursk region — a stark comparison.
The situation is rapidly changing and unpredictable. What yesterday appeared as a strategic zone, wisely placed within logistical arteries and natural barriers, today seems like a swift breakthrough in an unlikely direction. With the real strength of units exceeding the reported 300 troops from Russia’s Ministry of Defense, and considering restricted intel and panic within Russian ranks, this operation seems geared towards the European E-38 highway, under cover of the Seym River, steering towards the Kursk NPP.