Ukraine needs up to 75 ATACMS missiles to strike nearest Russian airfields, experts say
Ukraine will need between 35 to 75 ATACMS missiles to hit the three nearest Russian airfields, explained experts from Defense Express. Their estimates utilized satellite photos of the airfields and data on the destructive range of various Western missiles.
Western partners are hesitant to authorize Ukraine to launch strikes on Russian airfields, citing a limited number of ATACMS missiles. Surrounding Ukraine’s borders are roughly two dozen Russian runways, each requiring anywhere from five to 20 missiles. To target the three closest airfields—"Buturlinovka," "Millerovo," and "Morozovsk"—experts from Defense Express provided estimates based on the characteristics of ATACMS and the airfield layouts.
The experts note that the U.S. has two versions of the ATACMS missiles. The first, M39 Block I weighing 591 kg, can strike targets up to 165 km away and affects an area within a 200-meter radius. The second, M39A1 Block I weighing 174 kg, has a reach of 300 km and impacts an area within a 115-meter diameter. The first version is suitable for hitting the Millerovo airfield, located 165 km from the frontline (assuming the Ukrainian jet can approach as close as possible). The second version is effective for airfields Buturlinovka and Morozovsk, both 300 km away. According to Defense Express, the minimum number of missiles required to destroy airplanes stationed at these airfields is 35, with the maximum at 75.
Millerovo airfield is closest to the launch point from which Ukrainian forces can target objectives. This means they can use the first type of missile (closer range but more destructive), the experts stated. They used satellite images of the runway and overlaid them with several circles representing the destructive radius, concluding that 13 M39 Block I missiles would be needed to strike this Russian airfield.
For Morozovsk and Buturlinovka airfields, only the second type of M39A1 Block I missiles will reach. Experts indicated that Morozovsk would require 37 missiles, and Buturlinovka 25.
The article also mentions ways to reduce the number of scarce ATACMS missiles used. By employing reconnaissance during airstrikes and targeting only the points where aircraft are parked, the expenditure could be halved to 35 missiles instead of 75. The "economical" estimates predict the need for five to eight missiles for Millerovo, up to 10 for Buturlinovka, and around 20 for Morozovsk.
"In any case, it highlights a significant need for such missiles, as these three airfields are merely examples. Additionally, such strikes should be methodical rather than one-off actions," the Defense Express experts wrote.
An online combat map by DeepState shows around 20 Russian airfields reachable by various ATACMS types, indicating a minimum of 700 and a maximum of 1,500 missiles to strike them all. Despite the lack of Western weaponry, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have hit targets. For instance, on August 15, Ukraine carried out the largest drone attack on four Russian airports near Voronezh, Kursk, Savasleyka, and Borisoglebsk. Ukrainians launched 117 drones: satellite photos revealed scorched terminals after the strikes, as Focus previously reported.