Turning point in the conflict: depletion of Russian MLRS signals shift in war dynamics
The Ukrainian army ended November with an intriguing and unexpected record. Over the past month, only nine MLRS of the Russian forces were destroyed, marking the lowest number since the full-scale invasion began. Military expert Oleksandr Kovaleko explains that this isn't due to a decline in the Ukrainian Armed Forces' efficiency but rather significant changes on the Russian side.
According to Kovaleko, the record low number of destroyed MLRS indicates that these systems are becoming rare in the Russian army. Constant losses inflicted by Ukrainian strikes and the Russian industry's inability to replace these sophisticated weapons mean MLRS are gradually disappearing from the front. "This doesn't mean we're worse at finding and destroying them," the expert clarifies. “The issue is that Russia has fewer of them. Occupiers are increasingly replacing standard systems with makeshift 'homunculi'—handmade setups inferior to real MLRS.”
What does this mean for the war? The reduction in MLRS numbers points to a significant depletion of the Russian army's weapons reserves. This is a serious signal, as rocket artillery has long been one of the main tools of Russian pressure on the front. "After months filled with destruction records, we’ll increasingly see the opposite trend," predicts Kovaleko. "And it's not because we’re doing worse, but because the Russian army is descending deeper into a technological crisis."
The decrease in MLRS numbers confirms not only the success of Ukrainian forces in destroying key targets but also systemic issues within the Russian army. This unusual record is another sign that the Russian army is rapidly losing its ability to conduct war at the previous level of intensity. Experts believe these trends will only intensify in the future, opening new opportunities for the Ukrainian army and its allies.