The National Bank of Ukraine believes that if Ukraine doesn’t receive the next tranche from the International Monetary Fund by July, the cooperation program will probably end, as expressed during an interview with Dmitry Sologub, NBU deputy head, with Ukrainian news.
Sologub added, "We are reevaluating, as much as possible, but technically, the first quarter does not look viable anymore. It's more realistic to receive a tranche in the second quarter. When we receive a tranche, in the first or second quarter, it doe not make much difference for inflation. The very fact of continuing cooperation is important."
According to the deputy head of the NBU, if there is no decision on the IMF tranche until the end of the second quarter (end of June) it will indicate that there is a high probability that the current EFF (Extended Fund Facility) program may not continue.
"Ukraine will receive its money if the Ukrainian government theoretically implements a bunch of unpopular reforms two months before the election but the question is that the likelihood of this is low," said Sologub in response to the question as to whether the IMF allocates loans to countries where elections are due.
Earlier, the National Bank forecasted receiving 2 tranches from the IMF in the first and third quarter of 2018 for a total of $ 3.5 billion.
However, due to the slowdown in the implementation of reforms, the tranche is likely to be postponed to the second quarter.
Earlier, the Ukrainian Finance Minister, Oleksandr Danylyuk, said that the disengagement with international financial institutions would lead to problems with the country's solvency.