Stalemate in Kursk region: Ukrainian Forces avoid encirclement as U.S. halts military aid
The Ukrainian forces in Kursk are not encircled, though Russian fire control over key roads presents significant supply challenges—this is not a complete logistical cut-off, allowing for potential withdrawal routes, wrote military expert Alexander Kovalenko.
He broke down the military term "encirclement" and assessed whether Ukrainian Forces in Kursk face what's described as a "cauldron."
Per Kovalenko, military encirclement could either be tactical or operational. Operational encirclement isolates a unit from its primary forces, cutting off its supply line, which jeopardizes exit routes while maintaining maneuverability.
Thus, current control of the Kursk region isn't classifiable as operational encirclement—roads, including H-07, remain uncut physically, and defense forces can move freely within the region to resist attacks, maintaining a degree of maneuverability. Using terms like "operational encirclement," he argued, aids Russian propaganda.
Kovalenko posed, is there an encirclement in Kursk? No. Even with opponents surmising fire control over road H-07 as encirclement, this doesn't equate to a physical blockade—blocking exit routes is what constitutes true encirclement.
Kovalenko reported that about 60,000 Russian troops have concentrated in the Kursk region, bolstered by North Korean units for intensified assaults. Meanwhile, sources suggest Ukrainian concentrated around 10,000 troops, establishing a 6-to-1 imbalance.
Kovalenko stated Russian President Vladimir Putin imposed a tight timeline—by May 9—to reclaim Kursk. This urgency coincided with the halting exchange of arms and intelligence from the U.S., stimulating the Russian Army's push, similar to the Avdiivka offensive in October 2023, concurrent with Congress blocking aid to Ukraine.
Currently, Ukraine seeks to diversify support away from the U.S., looking towards European partners. As these initiatives unfold, some stabilization in Kursk has happened, though significant damage lingers, exacerbated by inconsistent partner support. Despite these challenges, claims of catastrophic scenarios may be overstated at this point.