North Korea to send engineering troops to Russian-controlled Donetsk
North Korea is set to send engineering troops to the Russian-occupied regions of Donetsk in July 2024. The troops from the DPRK will assist the Russians in "rebuilding" the damaged infrastructure. According to sources from the South Korean TV channel TV Chosun, the Kremlin will pay each North Korean soldier up to $800 for their services.
South Korean intelligence reports that the North Korean army has 10 engineering brigades and intends to deploy up to half of them to Ukraine. Pyongyang has previously sent soldiers from its "engineering corps" to various countries, including the Middle East, often disguising them as employees of construction companies under military command, sources indicate.
This decision to send troops to Ukraine likely results from the strategic partnership agreement signed during the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and DPRK leader Kim Jong-un on June 19.
Putin assured that the two countries would defend each other in case of war, with the agreement being described as "peaceful and defensive" by the North Korean leader. Interestingly, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov claimed to be unaware of any plans to send North Korean engineering brigades to Donetsk and Luhansk.
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes Russia's ambition to form an alternative global order. Moscow is attempting to create an Asian coalition of friendly states, reminiscent of its Soviet-era ties with North Korea and Vietnam.
ISW analysts do not foresee North Korean soldiers actively participating in combat in Ukraine. However, engineering support from the DPRK will free up Russian troops for frontline operations. This support will also reinforce military infrastructure, including defensive structures in occupied Ukrainian territories.
Kyiv hopes that North Korean soldiers will refrain from engaging in combat. Ukrainian MP Yegor Chernev mentioned that Russia has sufficient manpower, with brigades 80-90% formed and continuing to be replenished.
It is likely that Russian engineering troops have suffered significant losses, compelling Putin to request reinforcement from North Korea, notes Alexander Kovalenko, coordinator of the "Information Resistance" group and a military expert. The DPRK troops are expected to be stationed away from the frontlines. Stories about sending up to five brigades to Donetsk are likely exaggerated, says the expert, predicting a maximum of one or two brigades with potential rotation after six months.
North Korea's actions, ignoring international law, sharply contrast with France's unfulfilled promises to send legionnaires to Ukraine. Pyongyang has previously acted swiftly with artillery rounds and Hwason-11Ga ballistic missiles, known in the West as KN-23.
Military expert Colonel (retired) of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Petry Chernik sees both positive and negative sides to North Korean troops' deployment to Ukraine. While Ukrainian forces have effectively neutralised Russian military engineers, a lack of adequate response from the West could lead North Korea to send combat brigades.
"If Russia announces an additional wave of mobilisation, the nationality of the adversary doesn't matter whether they are Korean or Russian," he explains to Focus.
The expert cautions against taking Europe’s promises of military assistance to Kyiv seriously. Putin has escalated nuclear threats, and Western combat brigades are likely to be sent only if a Russian missile reaches their capitals.
Iran, Russia's following military ally, might emulate North Korea's example. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has a history of overseas operations ranging from diplomat assassinations to missile strikes on Israeli and US targets in the Middle East.
Chernik believes that Iran, Russia, and North Korea form an "axis of evil." He questions why Russia can't set up similar operations as the US did with its allies in Afghanistan and Iraq.
IRGC troops might appear in Ukraine, supporting North Korea's precedent, suggests the specialist.
Alexander Kovalenko hopes Tehran remains cautious, despite Iran being the first to supply Russia with ammunition and Shahed kamikaze drones. Iran has also sent instructors to train Russian units on drone operations.
Analysts at ISW previously suggested that Putin aims to create an alternative to NATO in Asia. In May 2024, the Russian president visited China for a meeting with Xi Jinping.