FSB first: expert discusses order of Russian military personnel exchanges after Ukrainian breakthrough in Kursk region
During a breakthrough in the Kursk region, Ukraine captured three categories of Russian military personnel. The largest group includes conscripts, whose mass return could pose a risk for the Kremlin. Another issue involves "Kadyrovets" (Kadyrov fighters), previously exchanged at high rates but now more problematic, said Former Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) officer and military expert Ivan Stupak shared on Kyiv 24 TV broadcast.
Stupak outlined three categories of Russian personnel captured during the Ukrainian Armed Forces' breakthrough in the Kursk region: "Kadyrovites", conscripts, and FSB servicemen. The least problematic are FSB officers. Other categories, particularly the "Kadyrovets" (Kadyrov fighters), present significant challenges. Previously, it was a "dogma" that this group commanded a "high exchange rate". However, the commander of the "Akhmat" unit refused these soldiers, stating that "Kadyrov fighters do not surrender." This previous scenario now seems untenable. Those who return to Russia face the front lines and penal battalions, the expert explained.
"The bar is set: no Kadyrovets will be exchanged. This presents a dilemma—whether to exchange Kadyrovets and if these prisoners even want to return to Russia," Stupak noted.
The second category includes Russian conscripts who could be exchanged readily and might return "en masse," the expert said. However, returning them all at once may raise "questions" among the Russian populace, so staggered exchanges might be preferred.
The third category involves FSB officers, specifically border guards, although it's unclear which subdivisions are captured. The former SBU officer expects eager exchanges for this group.
Regarding Ukrainian POWs, the expert suggested an "all-for-all" exchange format but noted Russia's "special attitude" toward the 12th Brigade of Ukraine's National Guard, the defenders of Azovstal. Russians are more inclined to imprison and torture these soldiers rather than release them, he emphasized.
On August 15, the SBU announced a mass operation capturing Russian soldiers. Sources disclosed that 102 Russians were detained. Photos from the scene show Russian troops from the 488th Motorized Rifle Corps and the "Akhmat" regiment seated under walls. The well-lit close-ups reveal detailed views of the detainees' faces and physical conditions.
On August 14, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced over a hundred Russian captives in the past day. A day later, British media reported around two thousand Russian military personnel captured during a week of combat in the Kursk region.