Nearly three months ago, proponents of peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow believed that Ukraine couldn't win and time was only on Russia's side. Today, Kyiv's position is bolstered by the Ukrainian Armed Forces' operation in the Kursk region.

Since the early days of the Kursk offensive, discussions about the impact of Ukraine's unexpected military operation on negotiations with Russia have been widespread among the public, media, and expert circles. The advancement of Ukrainian troops deep into the aggressor’s territory, accompanied by the gradual expansion of captured lands, Russian military personnel losses, and an increase in the exchange fund—constantly emphasized by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—could potentially improve Kyiv's future negotiating positions. Can Ukraine's foothold in the Kursk region be the turning point that pushes the Kremlin to the negotiating table but on Kyiv's terms ?

Until recently, Putin didn't view Ukraine as a party to negotiations, claiming he wanted to deal with the collective West on Russian terms. Now, Ukraine has "broken" the conditions imposed by the Russian president, thus strengthening its future negotiation stances, according to the Center for Counteracting Disinformation.

Before the start of the Kursk operation, the West doubted Ukraine's ability to reclaim territories and negotiate with Moscow from a position of strength. However, the Western officials likely didn't consider the scenario of a defensive nation's military pushing onto the occupiers' soil.

Over the last six months, Ukraine heard more frequent hints about the immediate need to start negotiations. In an interview with French agency AFP on May 17, Zelensky essentially confirmed that Western allies wouldn’t oppose if Kyiv sat down for talks soon, stopping the war.

American analyst and strategist Rajan Menon wrote in a June 3 Foreign Policy column that Ukraine needed to halt Russian advances, initiate its own counteroffensive, and reclaim more territory for a favorable negotiating stance.

Given the developments in the last two weeks in the Kursk region, Ukraine appears on track to achieve this strength. The real question lies in how long it can hold these positions, potentially at the cost of losing the battle for Pokrovsk, and whether Putin considers the lost Russian territories grounds sufficient for negotiating peace with Ukraine.

Is Moscow ready to talk? As recently as June 7, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Moscow was ready for negotiations with Ukraine, emphasizing that they should be based on the 2022 negotiations.

"We are ready for these negotiations. But only on the terms we agreed upon when these negotiations began in Minsk and then in Istanbul, not on some 'made-up' terms," Putin said.

Two months later, on the seventh day of Ukraine's breach of the Russian border in the Kursk region, the Kremlin head ruled out the possibility of peace talks with Kyiv.

"What talks can there be with people who indiscriminately strike civilian population and infrastructure, or create threats to nuclear energy facilities? What is there to discuss with them?" the Russian President questioned.

Following Putin's remarks, identical statements began emanating from Moscow by familiar Russian politicians. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov echoed Putin's sentiment that "after the incursion into the Kursk region's territory, there can be no talk of negotiations".

The Russian presidential aide for foreign policy, Yuri Ushakov, maintained that Putin's "peace proposals" remain valid and aren't "nullified," but "at the moment, entering the negotiation process would be entirely inappropriate".

Predictably, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, couldn't resist commenting on the negotiations, warning of the "negotiation trap".

According to The Times, Russia counterattacked Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region at the end of October. Political columnist Tim Shipman noted that President Zelensky suggested that the Kursk operation aimed to secure future peace talks on Ukraine’s terms. But, the analyst stated, no one expects talks before spring and probably not until fall 2025.

What kind of negotiations does Ukraine want? On August 12, Ukraine officially confirmed it was conducting operations in the Kursk region. Ukrainian Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reported to the President that Ukrainian forces controlled almost 1,000 square kilometers. Since then, the Ukrainian Forces have continued to advance within the Kursk region. On August 20, Syrskyi announced the area under Ukrainian control increased to 1,263 sq. km.

In his regular evening addresses, Zelensky emphasizes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are meeting their objectives within the Kursk operation.

On August 18, the President stated that Ukraine’s plans include creating a "buffer zone" in the Kursk region, removing the Russian military presence.

"Everything damaging the Russian military, the Russian state, their defense, and economy helps us prevent the war's expansion and brings the just conclusion of this aggression closer. A fair peace for Ukraine," he noted.

Importantly, neither the President’s Office nor the General Staff has officially disclosed the actual goal of Ukraine’s operation in the Kursk region. Zelensky hasn't commented on potential negotiations with Russia amid the Kursk op and hasn’t mentioned whether the seized territories could be a bargaining chip in talks with Moscow.

On the ninth day of the Kursk offensive, Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the President's Office head, told Russian outlet Meduza that "no one will negotiate with Putin on Putin’s terms".

"Ukraine believes that negotiations with Russia are possible only if Moscow understands the growing cost of the war. This means using coercive tools. One such tool is Russia's military defeat. What's happening in the Kursk region is yet another military defeat for Russia. Will this coercive tool work and lead to negotiations? Not on its own, but combined with other factors—yes," he said.

Podolyak referred to additional military aid from Ukraine's allies as these factors.

On August 21, Yermak’s advisor said that the Kursk operation destroys the concept of "great peacemakers" and revitalizes the fair negotiation process based on respect for countries' sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The Kursk offensive disrupted secret negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, which were set to take place in Doha this month, reported The Washington Post. According to journalists, a historic agreement that would end attacks on energy facilities on both sides was expected. A source familiar with the talks said "after Kursk, the Russians backed away."

Lavrov had to publicly deny such negotiations were planned, calling the reports of "hidden contacts" between Kyiv and Moscow with Qatari and Turkish mediation rumors.

Instead, a member of the parliamentary group "Ukraine's Recovery," Anatoliy Burmych, confirmed attempts to hold such talks, citing his own sources. Ukraine hasn’t commented on these claims officially.

Officials in Kyiv held mixed expectations regarding the success of these negotiations. Some estimated a 20 percent chance of success while others predicted even worse odds. However, thanks to capturing territories, Ukraine improved its future negotiating position, sources told the publication.

Will there be negotiations? The Washington Post’s observers believe the likelihood of quick peace talks has diminished, as Putin publicly vowed not to soften his stance due to an attack on Russian territory.

The New York Times notes that the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region won't facilitate quick negotiations or a ceasefire. The publication said Moscow counted on a ceasefire possibility by the end of this year, likely on its terms. Meanwhile, Kyiv takes a risky bet, as Russians expect Putin to counterattack in return, believing his military holds an advantage in personnel and weapons. The American publication asserts that signs already show the ceasefire efforts have failed.

  War in Ukraine, Kursk, Sudzha

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