Ukrainian troops seem poised for another local success as they close in on the village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region, which, once liberated, will open the way to Tokmak and Melitopol.

Robotyne has become the site of the largest battle in the summer counteroffensive campaign. With a pre-war population of less than 500 people, this village is part of the Tokmak urban community in the Polohy district of the Zaporizhzhia region. Located 80 kilometers southeast of Zaporizhzhia, 20 kilometers from the occupied Tokmak, and 30 kilometers from the occupied Pologi, Robotyne is intersected by the territorial road T0408.

The town has been under Russian occupation since March 2022. Ukrainian defense forces have been attacking in this direction since June 2023. According to some reports, advanced units may have already entered the village in early August.

Based on information from the DeepState service, more than 40 square kilometers of territory have been liberated in the Robotyne direction in just over two months. Currently, Ukrainian forces are engaged in intense battles as they try to break through the enemy's defense between Robotyne and the village of Verbove. Reports suggest that the Russian defense has already been pushed back by almost 7 kilometers, although fierce fighting continues. Despite the ongoing battles, Ukraine appears to be on the verge of another significant victory.

The Ukrainian command has been highlighting the advancements in this particular section of the front for several weeks now. Two weeks ago, Serhiy Kuzmin, the deputy commander of the Operational-Strategic Group "Tavriya," stated, "Our troops are still actively carrying out offensive operations in the Melitopol direction, specifically in the area of Robotyne. Our forces continue to destroy the enemy, advancing several hundred meters in the process."

According to the General Staff of Ukraine, the Russians are currently "attempting to recapture lost positions, including launching airstrikes." However, official reports state that all attempts have been "successfully thwarted, inflicting heavy losses on the advancing enemy." For instance, last week, a Ka-52 "Alligator" helicopter was shot down by a portable anti-aircraft missile system.

Details about the situation in Robotyne are officially undisclosed. Deputy Minister of Defense Anna Malyar only mentioned "planned operations in Robotyne " and success in the southeast of Robotyne and south of Mala Tokmachka.

Analysts from DeepState believe that battles are already taking place in the town itself, and due to the loss of initiative, the Russians are trying to establish defenses in the southern part of the Robotyne and may withdraw from it soon.

Images of Ukrainian fighters at the entrance to the village have been circulating on the internet since the week before last.

Experts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), based on geolocation images, are confident that Ukrainian forces have secured the northern part of Robotyne, despite statements from the Russian side to the contrary. They have also pointed out to reports from so-called "war correspondents" about the alleged temporary withdrawal from the village.

One Russian propaganda Telegram channel, WarGonzo, claims that attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces with artillery support are occurring between the villages of Robotyne and Verbove. It also states that Ukrainian forces have partially captured the front lines of Russia's defense. The expansion of the battle line is becoming a problem for the occupying forces, but, according to WarGonzo,"not critical" at the moment.

Military-political expert Alexander Kovalenko from the "Information Resistance" group notes that battles in the northern locations of Robotyne have been ongoing for some time. Since the end of last week, the central part of the town became a grey zone.

"I think that we will receive more official information soon. The most important thing is that the village will be liberated one way or another. And when this happens, we need to understand that the overall situation on this section of the front will change because Robotyne is the main obstacle on the way to the second line of defense of Russians," he said in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

He also emphasized that, in addition to the Ukrainian Forces breaking into the area between Robotyne and Verbove, they intensified their attacks on the right flank between Robotyne and the village of Kopani last week.

The offensive on Robotyne in June 2023 began with an unpleasant episode. In one of the first attacks, several units of Western military equipment were lost on the approach to the village.

As the analysts of DeepState noted, “on June 7th, the enemy managed to detect a column at an early stage and destroyed it with artillery strikes. The Russian side published footage confirming the destruction of several Leopard 2 tanks and Bradley armored vehicles".

According to Alexander Kovalenko, the armored vehicles were sent into reconnaissance combat in June, and they managed to uncover not only the Russian supply line but also the second line of defense with concealed artillery positions.

"By the way, then we saw a record number of destroyed Russian artillery. They revealed themselves by starting to massively use barrel and rocket artillery. Therefore, the losses of Western equipment were predictable for combat reconnaissance," the expert is convinced.

After that, the offensive plan changed. Now, the Ukrainian Forces are striking east and west of Robotyne. And such a cautious tactic is used not only here. For example, at the junction of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions, our troops are also advancing along the Mokri Yaly river, south of Urozhaine, in the direction of Staromlinivka, expanding the bridgeheads on the left and right banks.

Military expert Vladislav Seleznev points to the semi-encirclement of Rabotyno.

"Our units act like this because going head-on is a risk. The slow advance is due to the incredible density of minefields. The Minister of Defense (Oleksiy Reznikov) recently spoke about up to 5 mines per square meter," he added in an interview with the RBC Ukraine.

Last week Forbes reported that the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade, equipped with Marder and Stryker armored vehicles, as well as Challenger 2 tanks, joined the offensive in the vicinity of Robotyne. And supposedly, the bad news is that without significant progress, the counteroffensive to the south may lose momentum. Because when rotation time comes, there supposedly is no equivalent replacement for this brigade.

Today, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry sharply criticized Forbes' reports. According to Deputy Minister Anna Malyar, the price for news about the relocation of the 82nd brigade is 5 air strikes on its positions per day.

Vladislav Seleznev explains the significance of the settlement of Robotyne as one of Russia's key strongholds between Orekhiv and the occupied Tokmak. He describes it as a fortress on the way to the important hub of Melitopol.

"There is a so-called triangle, its mission is to block the approaches and the land corridor to Crimea. This triangle is between Vasilivka, Tokmak, and Melitopol. And when the Ukrainian army breaks through to Tokmak, the entire defensive network of the Russians can be seriously disrupted. But it is evident that this process is unlikely to be quick, as the enemy is strengthening its defense," he noted in an interview with the publication.

Last week, CBS News reported on Ukrainian advancement towards Tokmak. According to an unnamed U.S. official, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have overcome a minefield to the north of the city and have started storming the first line of defense. CBS does not specify the distance of this line from Tokmak, but it is likely referring to Robotyne.

The swift advancement is hindered by three lines of defense here. The first one consists of minefields several kilometers deep, the second one is where artillery, equipment, and personnel are deployed, and the third one consists of rear positions for resource accumulation.

But to reach Tokmak, Ukrainian troops would have to go through Novoprokopivka, Ilchenkove, Sladka Balka, and Chervonohirka. Military expert Alexander Kovalenko says that this is the second line of defense and there are indeed fewer minefields there.

"On the second line, there is armored vehicles and artillery, so the problem will be not so much with minefields as with clashes with motorized infantry units and the mechanized component," he emphasized.

ISW analysts believe that a breakthrough in the Robotyne area will allow offensive operations to be conducted outside the most heavily mined areas, which in theory could speed up the advancement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This includes the fact that there are elevations beyond the village leading to Tokmak.

Vladislav Seleznev is less optimistic about the situation, stating, "Right now, the enemy continues to mine the positions south of Robotyne, trying to halt our offensive. As for the dominant heights, they are needed to support the advancing units. We need to occupy them in order to see what the enemy is doing and carry out combat operations in more favorable conditions. I think our forces will focus on this - primarily on occupying heights and systematically destroying the potential of the Putin's army," he said in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

According to ISW, Russia's desire to hold onto Robotyne has led to the transfer of units from the 7th Guards Airborne Division from the Kherson region and some formations from the area between the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. However, due to a lack of reserves, other sectors are being exposed, weakening the defense, and potentially creating new opportunities for Ukraine.

Seleznev acknowledges that the southern land corridor to Crimea is heavily guarded by approximately 105,000 Russian troops, who will likely attempt to stop the Ukrainian Forces due to their significant numbers. "Will this help the enemy? I doubt it. As for the transfer of units, our intelligence structures should assess it. The key problem that the enemy faces is that they do not know exactly where and at what time the Ukrainian army will attack. On the southern front, there are at least four such sectors - the area of Vasilivka, Robotyne, Urozhaine, and Vuhledar (the last two are in the Donetsk region). From time to time, there are clashes in all these sectors, and the enemy will have to react," the expert added.

  War in Ukraine, Robotyne

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