Atlantic Council: Ukraine could join the EU by 2030
Ukraine should prioritize seven key elements: financial stability, access to EU markets, visa freedom within Europe, privatization, deregulation, political, state and justice reforms as well as accession to the European Union in 2030 as outlined in an article written by an expert from the Atlantic Council, Andres Aslund.
"After the revolution of dignity, Ukraine has made serious economic and political steps forward. Now it is the time to assess what has been done and what Ukraine will have to achieve over the next 15 years. The nation must set ambitious goals for itself such as achieving an annual economic growth rate of 6-7%. This economic growth is quite possible, because Ukraine is lagging behind its neighbors," Aslund says.
The author notes that last year public expenditures had been reduced from 53% of GDP to 44% and advises to continue to reduce public spending until it reaches 35% of GDP as it is in Lithuania and Romania. The expert noted that the exorbitant tax on wages at a rate of 45% was also reduced to 22%. The annual inflation rate had fallen below 10% and the National Bank began to reduce its interest rates.
"When they are reduced to 20%, it will help to revive investments," Aslund said. Aslund notes that the biggest problem in the fight against corruption in Ukraine is a corrupt justice system, the key elements of which are prosecutors and courts.
"East Germany, Estonia and Georgia have made significant progress in justice system reforms. They just fired all the old judges and prosecutors, and then hired completely new ones. And Ukraine should do the same. The more complicated and slower way is to create a separate anti-corruption service, as in Romania. Of course, the Romanian recipe worked, but it took longer. And this will require serious pressure from the EU," the article says.
Aslund concludes that if Ukraine achieves success on this path and builds free and fair economic, political and legal systems, then the country will be ready to apply for EU membership in 2020 as stated by the Ukrainian President, Petro Poroshenko, and will be able to join the European Union in 2030.