Germany views a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine as an unlikely scenario
Germany believes a full-scale Russian offensive against Ukraine to be unlikely but it doesn’t exclude such a scenario, the Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany, Andriy Melnyk, stated in an interview with Apostrophe.
“Berlin doesn’t exclude that possibility but believes this scenario to be unlikely. If, God forbid, such an invasion occurs, I’m sure that Ukraine can expect serious strengthening of sanctions against the Kremlin. In addition, the provision of defensive weapons to us would become a reality. Unfortunately, other more effective measures, including real military assistance, shouldn’t be expected,” Melnyk said.
According to the Ambassador, German Intelligence doesn’t confirm Russia’s preparation for a full-scale offensive. “God grant it to be like this. However, we have agreed to intensify communication between our security services to ensure a closer information exchange at all levels due to the escalation over the Crimea,” he said. Melnyk also explained why Germans are ambivalent about the deployment of an OSCE armed mission to Donbas.
The Ambassador indicated that Germany currently chairs the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. “That is why, the chance of those OSCE decisions succeeding, significantly depends and will depend on this country (Germany). Frankly speaking, the issue on the deployment of a police mission was perceived very skeptically by our German partners from the very beginning of the discussion. Especially, if the mission is to be armed.”
“There are many factors and each of them plays its role. Our assessment or the perception of why our idea of police mission was initially viewed skeptically by Berlin is very simple – Germany is and will be one of the largest contributors to the work of many international organizations, including the OSCE. That includes both financial support and staff that will be deployed on missions. That is why, it is obvious that the lion’s share of police personnel will be deployed by Germany. The same applies to other States that don’t want to have anything to do with it and will become deeply involved in the resolution of an extremely difficult conflict,” Melnyk noted.
The Ambassador also stated that the Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel, was, is, and will remain one of the only European (if not the world) high-level politician who has a direct communication channel with Putin and can get to the point and influence the position of the Russian President.
“Why do all of us want sanctions imposed against the Russian Federation? We need them to help change the Kremlin’s position, as well as a communication channel to convince Putin to change his course, which we believe to be criminal. It is difficult for me to give the names of other modern leaders, who would have this type of communication level and mutual viewpoints that would help achieve results,” Melnyk concluded.