According to economists polled by Bloomberg, the probability that Russia’s current economic situation will lead to large-scale protests is about 30%. As reported by RBC, Bloomberg surveyed 27 experts, only six of whom believed that there is 50% chance or more that Russia’s economic problems will lead to upheaval.
According to the head of a study group on emerging economies at the Toronto Dominion Bank, Christian Maggio, the probability of large-scale protests “is more limited than last time [in 2011] given the worsened relations between Russia and several neighboring countries… This all suggests that Russian people will feel more united and supportive of their government.”
As Bloomberg reported, Russia has seen only a handful of small protests so far this year, compared to other emerging economies such as India and Brazil that have seen large demonstrations and cases of rioting. Despite Russia’s economic woes and falling incomes, President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating remains high amid the conflict in Ukraine and airstrikes in Syria.
“The political reaction to this misery is probably going to be much more apathy than revolution. The Kremlin has just too many scapegoats at hand,” said Wolf-Fabian Hungerland, an economist at Berenberg Bank in Hamburg, Germany